ロシアの軍事費は維持できない。来年から予算削減をプーチン大統領が語る。戦時経済を支えた国家福祉基金の流動資産は底を突く寸前。

ロシアの軍事費は維持できない。来年から予算削減をプーチン大統領が語る。戦時経済を支えた国家福祉基金の流動資産は底を突く寸前。

Hello everyone. This is Kaoru Kamikawa. The topic I’ll be covering this time is related to the situation in Ukraine, and I’ll be focusing on Russian news. Recently, there have been fierce battles in the Middle East, so I haven’t updated the Russian news during that time. You might think that even if I’ve been away for about half a month, there won’t be much change. However, as the war continues, things like internal collapse in Russia will progress gradually, and it is very important to follow the changes along the way. Something will not suddenly change one day, but the changes will be happening gradually under our feet. In particular, in the case of Russia, the military-related budget is more than 6% of GDP, and with the addition of sanctions, internal margins are gradually disappearing. Whether you are a resource-rich country or an agricultural powerhouse, fighting a large-scale war for a long period of time is nothing but a burden. This time, let’s follow the Russian news , focusing on news that makes you feel that way . First of all , it seems that it is becoming difficult to maintain Russia’s high military spending . Here is an article that reports on this. Putin announces war spending cuts after oligarchs complain about economic problems. Putin said he plans to cut defense spending. The share of the budget on defense has already reached record levels not seen since the Soviet era. Russia’s treasury currently spends 6.3% of GDP on defense. Putin noted that this is a significant amount. “We are planning to cut defense spending. This is for next year, the year after, and for the next three years,” he said. ” There is no final agreement yet between the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development, but most of them are thinking in this direction.” At the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, many senior officials and heads of large companies announced serious problems in the Russian economy. For example, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov complained that Russia is already “on the brink” of a recession. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina also warned about the depletion of resources that have allowed the economy to grow in the context of military action and sanctions. According to Nabiullina, the free labor needed to expand production, the unused productive capacity of enterprises, and the reserves of the National Welfare Fund, where two-thirds of liquid assets have already been consumed, are all depleted. Before the full-scale war, Russia had accumulated profits, especially by exporting energy resources to other countries. However, when sanctions were imposed following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was able to continue to use its savings to pour large amounts of money into the military budget. Soldiers were paid very high salaries, and the huge investment in the military industry sometimes led to money being distributed to related industries. In addition, the labor market was tightened by driving many people to the battlefield, and there was also a rise in salaries due to the competition for talent. However, mass production and mass consumption resulting from the large-scale investment in the military budget are not necessarily being rewarded on the battlefield in Ukraine. Especially since the beginning of this year, the Russian military has been spending so many lives and money for a small advance that at the current pace, it will take hundreds of years to defeat Ukraine. If the savings run out completely, the national economy itself will be greatly paralyzed. For that reason, it is necessary to proceed with things like budget cuts . Next, confidence in Russia’s military industry has fallen again. In the recent full-scale battle between Iran and Israel, Iran asked Russia, with which it has a military cooperation relationship, for support. However, Russia is putting all its efforts into invading Ukraine and is in a state where it cannot provide any military support to Iran. This does not only mean free support, but also that even if Russia asks for some weapons or ammunition, it is not in a situation where it would respond to such a request in the first place. For this reason, news has been circulating that Iran has decided to purchase Chinese-made fighter jets instead of Russian-made fighter jets. After suffering heavy damage in the 12-day war between Israel and the United States, Iran has stepped up negotiations to purchase the Chinese-made J-10C multi-purpose fighter jet. Iran is looking to modernize its air force quickly, and Chinese fighter jets are seen as an affordable and cheaper alternative to the Russian Su-35. According to Military Balance 2025, before the war with Israel, the Iranian Air Force had about 150 fighter jets. These were mostly older American models that Iran inherited before the Islamic Revolution, including the F-4 Phantom II, F5 Tiger II, and F14 Tomcat. It also has 18 MIG-29s, introduced in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but most of them have lost their combat capability due to a lack of spare parts and maintenance difficulties. The last foreign-made fighter jet that Iran agreed to purchase is the Russian-made Su-35, which was contracted in 2023. Iran ordered a total of 50 aircraft, but the price per aircraft is currently over $100 million. Moreover, due to the war in Ukraine, there is no prospect of delivery from Russia. Meanwhile, the J-10C is a multi-role fighter that China is positioning as a more affordable alternative to the F16V and Gripen E. The price per aircraft will be between $60 million and $90 million, including spare parts, warranties, weapons, and pilot training. Some people still say that Russia is making the fight a very high priority, and if that is the case, they should have room for weapons production. However, as a result of the battles, there have been many crashes due to poor maintenance of the +Alpha, and the number of Russian fighter jets has basically been decreasing since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began . Therefore, even to Iran, with which they have made a formal contract, they have not been able to deliver any fighter jets at all. As this situation continues, Iran has decided to proceed with the introduction of Chinese-made fighter jets. This kind of talk is also occurring in relations with India. Russia postpones delivery of anti-aircraft missiles S-400 to India for three years. One of the major contracts for the supply of Russian weapons overseas, the sale of anti-aircraft missiles S-400 to India, has been suspended. The Indian military is still waiting for the delivery of five divisions of the latest Russian air defense systems, which were supposed to be delivered in 2024. The Indian and Russian defense ministers reported that the delivery under the contract signed in 2018 has been effectively postponed for three years. According to sources, the Russian side had promised to deploy the fourth division of S-400 missiles in India by the end of 2026 and the second division by the end of 2027. The Indian government has no plans to sign any new contracts to purchase Russian air defense weapons. The Indian Ministry of Defense has changed its policy from Russian Sukhoi fighter jets to purchasing French Rafale fighter jets. It has also frozen negotiations to purchase Russian combat helicopters and Su-30 fighter jets. It has also withdrawn from a joint development project for a fifth-generation fighter jet based on the Su-57, which Russia was working on . India has also started to hold off on Russian tanks, and it is believed that India no longer expects anything from the Russian arms industry and will pursue Western or domestic development. In addition, because people in their prime are being forced to go to the battlefield, Russia is facing a serious labor shortage. This is why Russia is turning to North Korea. In addition to trying to import weapons and ammunition from North Korea, They are also trying to invite more and more workers from North Korea. North Korea to send 25,000 people to Russia to work in drone factories? North Korea, citing diplomatic sources in Russia and Western countries, is considering sending up to 25,000 people to Russia to learn how to manufacture and operate drones. North Korean trainees will be trained at a Russian drone manufacturing factory. North Korea wants to help Russia manufacture drones. According to Ukrainian intelligence officials, talks have been concluded between Russia and North Korea to help with the production and development of long-range attack drones. With North Korea’s support, Russia is currently producing about 2,000 drones per month, and plans to increase this to 5,000. They will also increase production volume in Russia by sending workers and training these people . In addition, after learning how to manufacture, they will build a factory in North Korea and begin manufacturing large drones in North Korea as well. Newsweek article reporting on this. A “win-win” with Russia, the reason for establishing a manufacturing base for the military drone “Shahed” in North Korea. According to the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Agency, Russia and North Korea have agreed to establish a manufacturing base for the military drone “Shahed” in North Korea. In return for providing weapons and military forces, North Korea is expected to receive economic assistance and technology transfer from Russia. For North Korea, expanding trade with Russia will directly benefit the country. Russia has many things that North Korea does not have. For example, food, energy resources, and military technology are the three things that North Korea wants. And Russia, as it is becoming increasingly short of people, wants North Korea to send many people as workers and soldiers. In a sense, the interests of both parties are aligned. However, looking at things like this, it can be said that this shows the current situation in which Russia has to rely on other countries. If Russia alone could win this war in the first place, there would have been no need to accept weapons, ammunition, and people from North Korea and give various things in return. By the way, there are stories that Russia’s inside is gradually crumbling, but at the same time, there are no signs of the war ending. In Europe, rearmament was declared, and a defense budget of 5% of GDP was adopted as a common goal for many countries. As a result, Europe will play a leading role in supporting Ukraine, and will continue to support Ukraine. The Trump administration first made this request, but a similar request is also being made in Asia. The words of White House Press Secretary John Levitt, who held a press conference at the White House. “If NATO allies can do it, allies and friends in the Asia-Pacific region should be able to do it too.” This shows his intention to ask Japan and other countries to make significant increases. He believes that, like Europe, Asia should be able to achieve a defense budget of 5% of GDP. The JoongAng Ilbo newspaper in South Korea published the following article on this topic. “Defense spending to be increased to 5% of GDP like NATO… Discussions begin between South Korea, the United States and South Korea.” It seems that an official notice has been sent to South Korea, and discussions have begun on how much to increase defense spending. Although it is a bit different from Asia, a similar request has been made to Australia in the Oceania region. However, the request for Australia was not 5% but 3.5%. The 3.5% in Europe is purely about defense spending, and the 5% figure comes from adding 1.5% of related budgets. In Australia’s case, defense spending is currently 2% of GDP. This 2% level is the level that President Trump had previously requested. However, President Trump has recently raised the level of the request to 5%. Australia has stated that it will not agree to such a high ratio at this time, as it is difficult to raise it to such a high ratio right now . However, it has stated that it will continue the trend of increasing defense spending. First of all, we need to look at the changes themselves. Because if nothing has changed, we can think that Russia is very solid. However, if we look at the things that are changing one by one, we can see that the situation is gradually worsening for Russia. For example, the report of the Institute of War Studies points out that the Soviet heritage, tanks and armored vehicles, were produced in large quantities during the Soviet era, stored , repaired, and sent to the front line, and that a major challenge for Russia today is to repair military vehicles that have returned from the front line and make new ones to somehow carry them to the front line . Also, as mentioned in the first article, before the war began in earnest, Russia continued to import large amounts of energy aid from Europe. Russia had accumulated the wealth brought by the Soviet Union as savings. However, most of it has now been used up, and it is losing the financial resources that supported the wartime economy. And in terms of human numbers, the situation in which Russia has to rely on other countries continues to worsen as the labor shortage in Russia becomes more serious . Of course, each of these things does not mean that Russia will collapse tomorrow. However, as each of these problems piles up, we can understand that we can no longer afford to spend more on the military, and that we have reached a limit in strengthening our military power even further . For example, if we want to win the war at all costs, we can easily cut everything and put it all into military spending, but we cannot do that at present. I think that President Putin is talking about cutting defense-related budgets not because he wants to cut them, but because he has no choice but to cut them, and he is trying to shift the idea to something like this, because he is being told to do so by those around him . In the end, the idea that the nation’s power will increase and Russia will develop greatly as a result of the long-term war is nothing more than a fantasy. There is no way that Russia’s wealth can increase by investing a lot of money in producing military supplies, then consuming them in large quantities or losing them to being defeated. And the longer the war goes on, the more people die and get injured on the battlefield, so Russia’s future is closed off, so if anyone says that Russia’s future is bright, they should be considered to be saying something pretty ridiculous. What did you think when you heard this story? Please feel free to comment. Thank you for watching the video to the end. If you haven’t subscribed to our channel yet, please take this opportunity to do so. See you in the next video. See you soon👋🏻

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